Contact Information:
fgoncalves@econ.ucla.edu
Department of Economics
University of California, Los Angeles
8283 Bunche Hall
315 Portola Plaza
Los Angeles, CA 90095
Welcome! I am a labor and public economist focusing on policing, crime, and education. I am an assistant professor of economics at UCLA.
You can find my CV, Google Scholar, and NBER page here.
Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants
(with
Elisa Jacome
and Emily Weisburst)
NBER Working Paper 32109
[NBER Link]
Conditionally Accepted, American Economic Review
Professional Motivations in the Public Sector: Evidence from Police Officers
(with
Aaron Chalfin)
NBER Working Paper 31985
[NBER Link]
Conditionally Accepted, American Economic Review
From Crimes to Crime Statistics: Conceptual Challenges in the Measurement of Violence
(with
Cheyenne Quijano)
Annual Review of Criminology, January 2026
[Published Version]
Police Discretion and Public Safety
(with
Steve Mello)
NBER Working Paper 31678
[NBER Link]
Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics
The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety
(with
Sungwoo Cho
and Emily Weisburst)
Accepted, Review of Economics and Statistics
NBER Working Paper 31392
[NBER Link]
A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing
(with
Steve Mello)
American Economic Review, May 2021
[Published Version]
[Replication Package]
Selection Bias and Racial Disparities in Police Use of Force
(with
Steve Mello
and Emily Weisburst)
NBER Working Paper 34175
[NBER Link]
Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy
We study racial disparities in police use of force. A pervasive issue in studies of policing is that the available data are selected by the police. As a result, disparities computed in the observed sample may be biased if selection into the data differs by race. We develop a framework and econometric strategy for correcting this bias, using variation across officers in enforcement intensity to identify the racial composition of the unobserved population at risk of selection. Using detailed administrative data on arrests and force incidents from Chicago and Seattle, we find that Black civilians comprise 56 percent of arrestees but about 49 percent of potential arrestees. Correcting for sample selection doubles our measure of the racial disparity in force rates. Decompositions of the corrected force disparity reveal that about 70 percent is unexplained by other demographic and incident characteristics, suggesting an important role for officer discrimination. Our selection bias estimates meaningfully impact the conclusions drawn in the existing literature.
Police Work and Political Identity
(with
Cody Tuttle)
Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review
The preferences of bureaucrats are a central determinant of how governments operate, yet little is known about how these preferences are formed and the relative importance of selection versus the treatment effect of government work. This paper studies these questions in the context of policing and asks how working as a police officer impacts political preferences. We link civil service exam records to data on voting and campaign contributions to test whether becoming a police officer affects political identity. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs, we find that joining a police force increases Republican party affiliation, contributions to Republican campaigns, and voter turnout. The treatment effect of work can explain around 40% of the difference in party affiliation between police and the general population. We then show that political affiliation relates to on-the-job behavior: Republican officers make more arrests and use more force than comparable non-Republican officers. Finally, we revisit a canonical model of bureaucratic motivation and show that a treatment effect of work on preferences can alter the government’s optimal choice of selection into the profession. Our findings show how the experience of government work is central to bureaucratic preferences, and they highlight the constraints on worker selection and recruitment as tools to dictate the composition of the government workforce.
Do Police Unions Increase Misconduct?
I evaluate the impact of police unions on deaths by police and occupational license decertifications. My empirical strategy exploits the staggered rollout of unionization across departments nationwide and union certification elections in Florida, where I compare winning and losing elections. I find impacts that are small and statistically insignificant, and most specifications rule out more than a 10% positive impact. These results are robust to accounting for error in union status and under-reporting of outcomes. While the evidence does suggest that unions reduce civilian oversight and increase legal protection for officers, these impacts do not translate into elevated misconduct.
I study an ongoing state-subsidized program of rebuilding and renovating Ohio’s K-12 public schools and investigate the effect of improved facility quality on student and school district outcomes. The completion of a project increases public school enrollment and district property values. Test scores do not measurably improve upon completion and suffer significant reductions during construction. The implied willingness to pay for a project is lower than total costs but greater than the cost borne by district residents. While the program led to a narrowing in expenditures across district wealth, I find little evidence that it reduced disparities in student outcomes.
Can Heightened Immigration Enforcement Increase Crime?
(with
Elisa Jacome
and Emily Weisburst)
EconoFact
Immigration Enforcement and Public Safety
(with
Elisa Jacome
and Emily Weisburst)
Cato Institute
Economics Research on Racial Disparities in Policing
(with
Emily Weisburst)
EconoFact
What Drives Racial Differences in Speeding Tickets?
(with
Steve Mello)
EconoFact
Few Bad Apples? New Study Finds That 40 Percent of Officers in a Large Police Force Are Discriminatory
(with
Steve Mello)
ProMarket